The 2022 midterm elections are less than a week away! Conventional wisdom tells us Republicans are set to have historic gains nationwide, but almost every other factor says otherwise. Polling points to Democratic wins across many competitive districts and states. Expert ratings point to Democrats holding their majority in the Senate, with Republicans flipping control of the House of Representatives from the Democrats. That begs the question – why is there such a divergence in opinion? It boils down to the quality of the respective candidates and their campaigns in battleground states.

Take Pennsylvania for example. In the gubernatorial election, Democrats nominated current Attorney General Josh Shapiro, while Republicans nominated State Senator Doug Mastriano. In 2020, when he was elected Attorney General, Shapiro was one of two Democrats to win statewide. He outperformed the other Democrat, now-President Joe Biden, by about three percentage points. On the other hand, Mastriano, who attended the Capitol insurrection on January 6th, 2021, has run a controversial campaign. After narrowly winning the Republican primary, he has continued to take far-right positions on a multitude of issues. Mastriano has also drawn condemnation for antisemetic comments. Despite Pennsylvania being a battleground state in almost every election, polls and expert ratings show Shapiro having a strong and steady lead over Mastriano. 

One of the few places Republicans seem to be in position to win a number of important races is Oregon. The Beaver State has an interesting gubernatorial race. The race to be Oregon’s next governor is unique in that there are three major candidates. Democrats nominated former House Speaker Tina Kotek, while Republicans nominated former House Minority Leader Christine Drazan. The third candidate is former state senator Betsy Johnson, a Democrat-turned-independent. Polls showed the race as a tossup for much of the election season, but, in the final stretch, Drazan has taken a small lead. It is looking increasingly possible that Johnson, who is the most left-leaning candidate in this race, takes a large enough share of the vote that Drazan ecks out a narrow win, the first time Oregon might elect a Republican governor in forty years.

Taking a more local look, New Hampshire is set to have interesting races on all levels.  Incumbent United States Senator Maggie Hassan is seeking reelection to a second term. Hassan, who has previously served as state senator and governor, is no stranger to uphill battles. Her opponent, retired general Don Bolduc, ran for United States Senate in 2020 and narrowly lost the Republican primary. When he sought the Republican nomination in 2022, he won by a closer margin than expected. In addition, he has embraced, then walked back, comments supportive of the narrative that the 2020 election was stolen. Bolduc has also called for the repeal of the Seventeenth Amendment, which requires the direct election of United States senators. Due to a multitude of factors, election forecasters give Hassan a strong advantage in her reelection bid.  

Despite Democrats’ advantage in New Hampshire’s federal elections, Republicans are likely to continue to hold unified control of the state government. Polling indicates that it is not a question of whether incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu wins a fourth term, but by how much. A repeat of 2020’s thirty-one percent margin of victory for Sununu would likely see Republicans pick up seats in the state legislature. However, all signs are pointing to around a twenty percent margin of victory. The implications for a narrower Sununu victory on the state legislature cannot be understated. As the margin in the gubernatorial race approaches 15%, there is an increasing chance Democrats can flip control in the state house, therefore breaking the Republican trifecta that has ruled the state for the past two years.  

New Hampshire’s state legislature elections also deserves to be talked about. Currently, Republicans hold a 14-10 majority in the Senate and a 202-179 majority in the House, where there are 19 vacant seats. Redistricting made a Democratic trifecta borderline impossible, as Republicans drew the state senate districts heavily in their favor. It is likely that the composition of the New Hampshire Senate stays unchanged in the end, with Republicans and Democrats each flipping one seat; however, the New Hampshire House is more complicated. Due to its large size, many consider the chamber to be a tossup every election cycle. Republicans are likely to retain their majority, though Democrats have been focusing much more effort here than in previous years.

In the end, the 2022 midterms will likely be a wash for both parties. Minor gains will be made across the country, and Republicans will likely flip the United States House of Representatives, but there is little else they can pick up. Democrats, on the other hand, have much to defend and will be seeking to have the first midterm where the president’s party does not lose seats since 2002.

Incumbent Maggie Hassan (left) and challenger Don Bolduc (right) are facing off in NH, a key state in this year’s midterms. (Courtesy / DVIDS)