New Hampshire’s position in the presidential primary calendar has come under an increasing amount of scrutiny in recent months. National Democrats have opted to boot New Hampshire from its historical “First-in-the Nation” status in favor of South Carolina. With the recent announcement, both politicians and election officials across New Hampshire have committed to a strong defense of the New Hampshire Primary. 

With many current and former elected officials expected to announce their candidacies in the coming months, some have turned to the national news networks in an attempt to draw attention to themselves. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu has teased the idea for many months of a 2024 presidential run, but against prospective frontrunners former President Donald Trump or Florida Governor Ron Desantis, he would undoubtedly struggle.

A critical component of a presidential campaign is the candidate’s policy positions, specifically on hot button issues. Abortion, inflation, immigration, and civil rights are omnipresent in the news coverage, and a candidate’s position on these topics can be an asset or a liability. 

Gov. Sununu has garnered a reputation for bipartisanship and common-sense solutions, so far successfully hedging himself against a state legislature that has become increasingly partisan and polarized. This has allowed him to win reelection as governor three times and, like with every governor for the last twenty years, has cemented his popularity in the state. Largely due to the minor role of the governor, Sununu has not had to delve into taking positions on these incredibly complex topics. 

The exception, of course, is the twenty-four week abortion ban Sununu signed in 2021. The legislation has its expected supporters and detractors, but there can be no doubt that it has damaged his standing in the state. Polling prior to the abortion ban showed Sununu’s approval around 70% in May 2021. By July, it had slipped further, to 63%, and by October, only 54% of Granite Staters approved of the governor. Much has changed in the seventeen months since– Sununu’s approval has bounced back, the 2022 midterm elections have occurred, and the 2024 presidential primaries are just around the corner, but there can be no doubt that when popular politicians take stances unpopular with the electorate, they suffer varying degrees of electoral consequences.

There is also the issue of nationwide Republican primary voters. With their diverse thoughts, needs, and experiences, these voters will have a multitude of choices to pick from. The four big blocks of voting groups are evangelical voters in the south, exurban and suburban voters outside big cities, blue-collar voters mainly in the midwest, and rural voters in large swaths of the United States.

In a three-way primary where the major candidates are former President Trump, Governor Desantis, and Governor Sununu, each of these categories would be divided up among the candidates.

 In 2016, Trump won the nomination through broad appeal as an outsider. Eight years later, his path has changed significantly, but so has the core of the Republican party. Large parts of the party have been reshaped to allow the former president an easy nomination, creating challenging paths for those wishing to defeat him. 

Governor Desantis, due to his publicized and bold socially conservative stances, presents the biggest challenge to Trump. In the event he makes a strong bid for the nomination, his path runs through the southern states. Big wins with socially conservative evangelical and exurban voters in states like Florida, Texas, Tennessee, and especially South Carolina all would put him in a strong position to defeat the former president. 

A win by former President Trump relies on blue-collar and rural voters in the Midwest and Mountain West turning out for him and not losing too much ground, if any, to Desantis in the South. Governor Sununu’s path becomes increasingly narrow as time passes. New Hampshire Republicans have voted for the eventual Republican nominee in every primary election since2000. A Sununu win in the Granite State would help his candidacy, but it would by no means drastically increase his odds of winning the nomination. 

Governor Sununu’s path relies on an increasingly less-Republican demographic– educated, white-collar voters. In the era of Donald Trump, these voters have become increasingly likely to vote for Democrats up and down the ballot. And so while Sununu would make the general election competitive, his ability to win the primary relies on a dwindling base of support.

There is a high likelihood that Chris Sununu will not be the Republican nominee in 2024. His path to the nomination is small and decreases with every passing day. Beyond running for a record fifth term as governor in 2024, his political future includes a plethora of opportunities. The vice-presidency would be the rare boost to his national profile that would not kill his aspirations for higher office, while an ambassadorship or cabinet appointment likely would. There is also the possibility of Governor Sununu running for New Hampshire’s other US Senate seat in 2026 after passing on a run in 2022. Time will tell when, or even if New Hampshire will elect a second president, but anywhere in the near future can be ruled out.