Bush, Paul, Walker lead wide-open GOP primary; Hillary continues to dominate among Democrats

Katelyn Ellison, Communications Specialist - NHIOP

A new Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire poll shows Jeb Bush leading a wide-open GOP field, drawing 16% support among likely Republican primary voters. The poll was conducted by Purple Strategies. Full results:

 

1 Jeb Bush (16%)

  1. Rand Paul (13%)
  2. Scott Walker (12%)
  3. Chris Christie (10%)
  4. Mike Huckabee & Ben Carson (6%)
  5. Marco Rubio (5%)
  6. Ted Cruz & Bobby Jindal & Donald Trump (3%)
  7. Rick Santorum & John Kasich (2%)
  8. Carly Fiorina & Rick Perry (1%)

 

With Mitt Romney now out of the race, no one GOP candidate has locked up his support making this the most wide-open New Hampshire primary in years.

Rand Paul has the highest favorability rating (63%) among Republican voters of the candidates in the field.

Just 54% of Republican voters have an opinion of Scott Walker, but those with a favorable view outnumber those with an unfavorable view by more than 4 to 1.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, Hillary Clinton continues to have a dominating lead over her rivals with 56% support.

Elizabeth Warren comes in a distant second (15%), followed by Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders (tied at 8%).

While GOP voters may be ready to support Bush, others appear to have doubts. His unfavorable rating among general election voters is 50%, compared to 35% favorable.

Hillary Clinton, by contrast, has a 54% favorable rating and a 42% unfavorable score among those voters.

Of the 21 possible Democratic and Republican presidential candidates named, only Trump’s unfavorable rating (66%) was higher than Bush’s.

– Jeb Bush’s support for allowing undocumented immigrants to stay in this country and for Common Core educational standards are cited as “deal killers” by 41% and 20% of GOP primary voters, respectively

– 69% of GOP voters say Walker’s victories against public-employee unions are either a “very” or “somewhat convincing” reason to back him

– When tested against Walker, Paul and Christie, 28% of GOP primary voters picked Jeb Bush as the strongest candidate to take on Hillary Clinton; compared to 18% who each chose Walker, Paul and Christie

– Given a choice, 59% of GOP voters say the strength of Jeb Bush’s campaign is based on his unique qualities and achievements, while just 31% say it’s his family’s connection to politics

– In contrast: 74% of Democratic voters say the strength of Hillary Clinton’s campaign are her qualities and achievements; only 21% choose her family connections

Purple Insights — the Washington-based research division of Purple Strategies — was named one of the most accurate pollsters of 2012 by Fordham University for its national and swing state polls.

Methodology: The poll was conducted by Purple Insights and included 400 likely Republican primary voters, 400 likely Democratic primary voters and 503 general election voters from Jan. 31- Feb. 5. The primary election sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points. The general election sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.